Sometimes, when children face something new, they seem to be thinking, "I can't do it." Before they even try, they picture themselves failing.
That may look like a matter of personality or shyness. But in Japan, this sense of "I can't do it" runs in the same shape from childhood into adulthood.
Capable, yet not confident they can do it on their own
In the OECD's 2022 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), Japanese first-year high school students scored at the top level in the world in all three areas: mathematics, reading and science. Yet on the same survey's index that asked, "If your school building closed again, how confident would you feel doing the following?", Japan scored −0.68 against an OECD average of 0.01, ranking 34th. Only 41.6% said they were confident they could "do schoolwork independently," and 33.9% that they could "motivate myself." They are capable, yet they do not believe they can do it on their own.
A 2023 survey by Japan's Children and Families Agency of 13- to 29-year-olds in Japan, the United States, Germany, France and Sweden shows the same pattern. In Japan, 56.4% of young people said they "work eagerly even on things that may not go well." In the other four countries the figure was 71.2% to 80.0%, leaving Japan far behind. Japan's figure has risen from 51.5% in 2018, but the gap is still 15 to 24 points.
Only 12.5% of adults think they could start a business
The pattern continues into adulthood. In the 2025 Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM), an international survey of attitudes toward entrepreneurship, 12.5% of Japanese adults said they "have the knowledge, skill and experience required to start a new business." That was the lowest of the 46 countries with 2025 data. The next lowest, Taiwan, was 36.0%; the United Kingdom was 61.8% and the United States 55.6%. Japan has never exceeded 16% since 2001.
This is a self-assessment, not a measure of actual ability. Japanese respondents tend to answer modestly, so the figure should be read with that in mind. Still, whether people start a business depends on exactly this belief. A study of adults in 18 countries found that the best predictor of starting a business was not actual ability but whether people believed they had the knowledge and skills.
The figures for children and adults do not follow the same people over time. We cannot say that low confidence in childhood is why adults do not start businesses. Even so, the scarcity of people who believe "I can do it" appears to run continuously from childhood into adulthood.
What matters is grounded confidence
Does that mean we should simply give children confidence? No. A study of 201 founder-CEOs in the United States found that the more optimistic the entrepreneur, the lower the growth in sales and employment. Ungrounded confidence may help people take on challenges, but it does little to help them succeed.
What matters is confidence that lets you say, "I've done this before, so I can do it." That confidence grows from real experiences of success. An analysis combining studies of children and adults found that in adults, confidence and performance influence each other, while in children the main path runs from performance to confidence: the success comes first, and the confidence follows. Empty praise and encouragement such as "You can do it" alone do not make confidence last. Programs that try to change personality itself have also been found to have weak effects.
Confidence is not about personality, or about parents
Part of confidence is inborn. A study of nearly 13,000 twins in six countries, including Japan, found that genes explained about 40% of the individual differences in children's sense that "I can do it" in each school subject. Family environment explained almost 0%. The remaining 60% or so depended on each child's own experiences.
Confidence is neither the parents' fault nor their credit. What makes the difference is each child's own accumulation of "I did it" experiences, including those outside the home. When a child seems to be thinking "I can't do it," try setting up one small success before reaching for words of encouragement.
That is also what Digital Kodomo BASE aims to be: a place where children can build up experiences of "I can do it if I try." They make works that move with their own hands, and step by step take on challenges they can reach with a little effort.